If there is anything I’ve learned after years of trading the markets for myself its that you buy a company when its down. Toyota seems like the perfect name, having a strong history of quality cars despite recent problems with its accelerators and now brake problems with the Prius line. However, all this [...]

Here are a bunch of weekly swing trades based on the 4H Box weekly breakout strategy. Don’t forget to set break even stops when the trades are half way to target
EUR/JPY
Buy@ 122.370 SL121.430 TP124.250
Sell @ 121.430 SL122.370 TP119.550
GBP/JPY
Buy@ 139.910 SL138.715 TP142.300
Sell@ 138.715 SL139.910 TP138.325
CAD/JPY
Buy@ 83.880 SL82.990 TP85.660
Sell@ 82.990 SL83.880 TP81.210
AUD/JPY
Buy@77.825 SL76.980 TP79.515
Sell@ 76.98 [...]

In December, I posted about Ben Bernanke (Bernanke’s Background and Near-Term US Monetary Policy), specifically about how a basic understanding of Bernanke’s academic background and philosophical approach to monetary policy could be useful for predicting the general direction of interest rates, irrespective of prevailing economic conditions. This post, is somewhere between a follow-up and a [...]

The big money is good, really good, at predicting when the markets are soon to move. For the past year I’ve been watching the option volume of the big boys and many of them have proven to be extremely profitable. Recently, $1.2 billion of stock was protected to the downside with put options. [...]

I was on the Business News Network talking about this morning’s U.S. and Canadian employment reports. Click on the image to access the video:

Kudos to anyone who correctly identifies that reference. But seriously, in light of the proposed changes in forex regulation that have generated a heated response on this blog and elsewhere, I want to offer some insight into a tangential issue: jurisdiction.
Part of the problem with existing forex regulation is not that it’s insufficiently strict, but [...]

I’ve been throwing an idea around in my head. At what point do the odds cease to matter and the chance of big money becomes the main motivator?
Investing Theory
The whole goal of investing is to place yourself in positions that come out to positive odds. That is, with enough data sets you [...]

In 2009, so-called commodity currencies – both individually and as a group – registered record-breaking gains. The Brazilian Real and the South African Rand finished up more than 30%, while the Australian and New Zealand Dollars finished up about 25% each, and the Canadian Dollar not far behind. While the outlook for 2010 is slightly [...]

I was on CNBC Europe this morning talking about Volcker’s speech today and outlook for ECB and BoE rate decisions

Had a short quick hit on CNBC Australia yesterday - I was running soooo late!

The U.S. dollar has had an incredible run over the past 2 months, leading many traders to wonder whether the dollar is overvalued. The answer is NO. Based upon purchasing power parity, all of the major currencies are still very overvalued against the U.S. dollar - particularly the Aussie.
What does this [...]

It has long been accepted that January is a bellwether for the performance of the stock markets for the rest of the year. That is, if stocks rise in January, the market will rise for the rest of the year. If stocks fall, stocks will drop for the rest of the year. [...]

In October, I wrote about a “separation” that had taken place in currency markets between the “sick” currencies and the “healthy” currencies. At the time, I argued that the former category was comprised mainly of the Dollar and the Pound, with most other currencies healthy by comparison. While I still stand by this paradigm, I [...]

The Great Recession is now in our rear-view mirrors and with GDP growth of 5.7 in the fourth quarter, the recovery looks well underway. However, the surge in growth is unlike anything we have seen in a while. The recessions of the early 2000’s and 1990’s saw inconsistent growth after the recession ended. After [...]

There was a sharp move intraday in EUR/CHF that smells like intervention…but was it? SNB member Hildebrand and the Bank of International Settlement has declined to comment on the move in the Swiss Franc. The first chart shows today’s price action in EUR/CHF and the second shows the price action of EUR/CHF when [...]

Over the past few trading days, the British pound has been confined to a very tight trading range. The following chart illustrates the predicament that GBP/USD traders find themselves in right now and I believe that the breakout will be to downside with the GBP/USD testing 1.60 in the near term.
This morning, [...]

In 2009, the South African Rand was the world’s second best performing currency, after only the Brazilian Real. Since September, however, it has stagnated, and over the next year, it is projected to fall 10%. What happened?!

The Rand represents an interesting case study because it sits at the nexus of several trends. The first is [...]

At the beginning of the year, I said my New Years resolution is to blog more so here I am trying to stick to it as much as possible.
You probably don’t know that I am a big fan of skiing but I love the exhilaration of being on the slopes and being outdoors [...]

I published a full analysis of the FOMC meeting on FX360.com but here’s a visual breakdown of the changes to the latest FOMC statement.

Last Friday, the CFTC released their weekly report of futures positioning. According to the data, which was as of last Tuesday, short positions in the Japanese Yen hit the highest levels since August 2008. At that time, the Yen weakened significantly and soon after a short squeeze pushed the currency sharply higher against the [...]

Forex trading volume has finally recovered after the wave of deleveraging caused the market to contract back in April 2009. Earlier this week central banks from around the world released their semi-annual foreign exchange surveys and according to the reports, the average daily trading volume between April and October of 2009 increased significantly. [...]

Pull up a 1-year chart of the Euro against the Swiss Franc, and you’ll quickly notice a salient trend: the exchange rate has hovered slightly above €1.50 since last March, with three notable deviations. The first occurred last March, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervened in currency markets on behalf of the Swiss Franc, [...]

Let me preface this post, by noting that I try to avoid writing about gold, since there are some many other excellent analysts out there writing about the subject. But when there is a such a strong overlap between gold and forex markets, well, I just can’t resist!
Recently, gold prices have collapsed at virtually the [...]